There is a future waiting for us -- a future that's not so far off -- in which we won't bother to put filmmakers' names on their films. Musicians' names aren't going to appear in online music stores' listings. We might still search for books to buy, but we won't search by author. Admittedly, this can't help but seem contrived and far-fetched. Creative people demand credit for their works, don't they? If their labors aren't rewarded well financially (and often, they aren't), then they at least need to be recognized. Right?
Well, I should be more specific. It's not that authors, bloggers, filmmakers, and musicians are going to agree collectively to have their names scrubbed from their works. Rather, it's that nobody actually searching for and using that content is going to care who made it. Amazon and iTunes will drop the byline column in their interfaces. In fact, our online shopping won't resemble iTunes or Amazon at all. Life is moving swiftly away from that clunky, old-school model.
Before I explain my vision, let me give some background. There are two main reasons that the concept of authorship is dying out. First, technological progress in the realm of communications -- particularly internet communications and wireless personal devices -- have made it possible for the Joe Six-packs of the world to create and publish content til they're red in the face. For what it's worth, a recent Wired article makes a number of important points about the consequences of this new "everyone's a director" era. Not the least of these, of course, is the sheer quantity of potentially interesting content we have on our hands now. But it's also worth noting that allowing everyone to be a journalist and a movie maker means that each of us is going to find more content that resonates with us personally than ever before.
Second, the technology we use to comb through the reams of (mostly useless) content now confronting us has progressed immensely over the last couple of years. We have a two-pronged strategy, and it seems to be working. On the one hand, better robots: software engineers are always offering up improved algorithms that learn more about what we're looking for when we search for certain terms or navigate certain sites. On the other hand, more humans: the effort to manually catalog all Earthly data -- embodied by Wikipedia, the Human Genome Project, the Music Genome Project, and many others -- have made huge strides as well. When you allow everyone to contribute just a little bit, you wind up with a whole lot of collective elbow grease.
What's in a name, anyway? Decisions based on the reputations of others have been a staple of business and politics for as long as humans have had tongues to gossip with. Your name is a placeholder for the relevant, public information others may need to know about you -- in short, what you're 'worth' to the tribe. Once upon a time, societies were small enough that everyone was fairly well-acquainted with one another. No longer, unfortunately. Once we began settling down in bigger groups, it was suddenly important to have ways of predicting the tendencies of other folks in the tribe. Suddenly, we found ourselves in need of heuristics (academic-scientific jargon for 'shortcuts').
Luckily, human beings generally abide by the law of momentum. Wild swings in decision making, personal preferences, and habits are likely to be taken as manifestations of psychological disorder, precisely because they're fairly rare. As such, my reputation (or name) is a reasonably trustworthy indicator of what others can expect of me when they encounter me face-to-face.
But we're talking about searching and filtering content. How is the whole subject of personal reputation relevant to our discussion? As it turns out, the reputation dynamic applies just as much to people trading in a marketplace or negotiating contracts as it does to the production of literature, painting, sculpture, music, theater, journalistic content, and other media. Unless you're with the artist in her studio, you have no idea what's around the corner. If you're a fan of the last few Animal Collective albums or David Sedaris books or Nick Kristof articles, there's a pretty decent chance you'll like whatever they put out next (or, for that matter, what they put out a long time ago).
But what do you get when you combine an exponential increase in the amount of content, a democratization of that content (so that most of it is made by "nobodies"), and the ability to sift through all of that content more accurately than ever before? Names are no longer the best available heuristic. Plenty of nameless nobodies create great content. Searching for the big names won't help you find them. At the same time, the big names don't always offer what you're looking for. The powers of great artists and writers often decline. Consequently, our methods can (and must) evolve. And they've begun to. I can type "Animal Collective" into Pandora and gain instantaneous access to untold hours of music by other artists that may suit my mood better than whatever I might find by simply searching iTunes for more of the Collective's own releases.
What would the world look like if we applied the Pandora model to realms other than music? Let's take news. For generations, people have relied on knowledge, built up over years of browsing different sources, that certain publications and authors are particularly reliable and relevant. These publications and authors produce trustworthy, well-written content. Further, each of us has a mental list of the periodicals that sync well with our personal interests -- and these are the ones we find ourselves visiting habitually. But let's imagine instead that we can break these routines we fall into. We have good reason to. After all, I might be a fan of, say, the Washington Post, but it's fairly commonplace that I can't find much of interest past the front page.
Instead, what if we take all the electronic news produced around the world and apply a set of filters and machine learning algorithms to it? Our filters produce a newspaper's worth of articles, plucked incredibly selectively from all that data, delivered to each of our inboxes each morning. Google News is one of the first baby-steps in this direction, but there's so much more to be done. It does a fairly good job lumping together related content from multiple sources, but it can't learn a thing about your interests and tastes.
But what if, as people read articles, they were able to select several attributes from a finite list (not free-tagging, mind you) that they thought applied to that content? Then, a machine learning algorithm would discover similarities and patterns among content with particular combinations of those attributes. For example, a set of similar articles might be tagged with "North Korea," "analysis piece," "over 1200 words," and "small news outlet."
With a system like this in place, you and I would be able to cruise from article to article based on those underlying patterns. With a combination of user-set preferences ("I'm interested in articles about international affairs and the environment") and machine-learned preferences ("This user mainly likes analysis pieces that are over 1200 words"), the software could deliver a highly-tailored collection of articles every day, just as Pandora delivers streams of music customized to individuals' tastes. Of course, machine learning does best when it has lots of user input, and crowd sourcing for that input is a quick and easy way of getting it. Like I mentioned earlier, a little elbow grease from a lot of people translates to a lot of elbow grease. This is something we could begin building today.
An album used to be a fantastic way to structure an hour's worth of music. It was all written by the same person or people over a fairly discrete period of time. Songs arranged into an album often flow well into one another, and the timbre of an artist's discography usually shifts slowly over time. In the same way, a newspaper managed by a unified editorial staff used to be the most logical way to organize journalistic content. The politics and perspectives of such a staff are often slow to change. End users are slow to change, and so attaching themselves to slowly-changing entities like bands, writers, and newspapers made a lot of sense. But we're entering an age in which it's no longer necessary to rely on the 'human momentum' heuristic. We have new ways of grouping content -- that is, we can collect things under categories that are guaranteed to change only when the users themselves change their minds. After all, momentum is only steady until it shifts. If we have better ways to find and group content, let's use them.


Legacy Comments
I said this to you before, but Roland Barthes is rolling (with happiness) in his grave.
HAH. Didn't notice the picture until after that.
Fascinating perspective!
I'm afraid my mind is not sufficiently advanced to share your vision just yet, however. A few thoughts:
- There is no way a human could read all the interesting/relevant/intelligent commentary on any given subject in a day, let alone a week or a year. So for all intents and purposes, content is already infinite, democratized, and available.
- Following from that, the best way to filter through this endless sea of content for something interesting remains acquaintance with an author, band, newspaper, label, series, etc. This "heuristic" as you call it remains extremely relevant and I question whether it will ever be otherwise.
- I question whether recommendation algorithms will ever be sufficiently intelligent to understand human content (writing, music, video, whatever) in a way that even approximates human understanding. Sure, an algorithm can give us 20 articles or 2 albums that will fill up the hour we have a day for content consumption, but out of that list we will always want to pick our favorite authors, feeds, albums, whatever for preference later. And to do that there needs to be a categorization of content, and authorship remains a crucial (and usefully ego-serving) way of doing that.
- How does a Dan Froomkin get hired by HuffPost so quickly after leaving WashPost if he has no name recognition, if his articles are merely recommended by algorithms? I suppose it could all come down to hit counts, their causes irrelevant, but that again raises the question how any nameless talent gets sufficient following in an infinite sea of authorless productions. I don't see that dynamic ever changing, nor should it.
- Ben
Phenomenally interesting and thoughtful argument. However, I disagree with your conclusion. I tend to think that all of the trends you identify (great Wired article btw, though they'd made the point by the middle) actually accentuate the role of the individual as content creator and critic more than ever.
What the new technology has done is fundamentally make formerly monopolized information distribution networks inherently more democratic and meritocratic. Democratic because anyone can publish whatever without much barrier cost. Meritocratic because any number of anyone's can decide that something is interesting or worthy and link to it, rate it highly, peer review it well, and so forth.
In an information obliterated world, instead of using your psychologism for heuristics, I have often made basically the same statement in economic jargon. It is only rational that we value signals as much as substance, because we cannot sort through the reams and reams and reams of complex substance otherwise.
The old "quality affiliation" signals/heuristics are basically what "old media" continues to thrive on, even as the distribution infrastructure monopoly is more and more gone each year. They still have: 1) some of the best sources, and 2) some of the best readership. Both these "producers" and "consumers" are functions of the symbolic reputation you mention.
So what I see these trends doing then, actually, is disempowering precisely that kind of symbolic status for traditional "information bureaucracies." In some sense, what the democracy of blogs or youtube or whatever else does it make conventional AFFILIATIONS less important in the discovery, creation, distribution, or evaluation of original content, reporting, and thought. Google ranking for instance means that when individuals discover other individuals doing a much better job on something than a "mainstream qualified" institution, they can vote as much and draw the rest of that internet sub community's attention to it.
Thus you are totally right that the technology enables "discovery" based on things other than mere brands, institutional preference, or brand name artists/authors because of those institutional affilations. Yet look deeper. What we find is that the best bloggers or lone artists or whatever else now are able to obtain their own "celebrity" status. This makes sense for all the reasons you describe. These works are created by individual agents, individual humans. That in itself is a huge predictor of the next work. Think how excited you are whenever your favorite blogger or writer or artist comes out with a new product on a topic or in a subgenre you love. Before you even get to it, you are full of anticipation -- and usually deservedly so. The individual does not die in such a process I think. He or she becomes instead profoundly elevated above the empire of Penguin or Universal or Time Warner or Congress or the Wall Street Journal or Harvard or Exxon or what have you. That is why online newspapers now quote "random" bloggers routinely...and "select feed" sites like Huffington or Drudge or DailyKos or TNR are as drawn from blog intel as anything else.
All this is wonderfully libertarian in that perspective. If you want to use the old fashioned economic analogies, the new technology means that we all get to own our own parcel of land and supply our own irrigation without great start up costs. We don't have to use the main water source owned by Time Warner. It exemplifies the term marketplace of ideas like few things can -- inherently individual competition.
If you think about your spiders and humans discovery process, the best discovery engines we have like Google or Yelp ratings or Music Genome are very much driven by INDIVIDUAL ranking, rating, comparison, defense etc. Yes things like Wikipedia or the Genome are ultimately "aggregate" products, but they are very much individual vote products leading to aggregates, and they deploy economic rationale because "wealthier" (eg more trusted or more voluminous editors on wikipedia who do consistently good work) effectively get to invest more of their social capital ("have a stronger voice/vote") than some anonymous IP address. It is thus an inherently democratic/meritocratic system at once. It is not systematizing or dehumanizing at all this way, and one might say that one of the most brilliant components of a company like Google's "algorithmic approach" is that it embeds human decision making, human accountability, and human feedback into the quality sorting process of whatever the spiders find.
Two books that you may find interesting within this larger discussion are "The Wisdom of Crowds" (though skim it only) and Mancur Olson's stuff, "The Logic of Collective Action" being the most well known one. (Worth a close read but more exhausting.)
Anyway, that's my 2 cents really late at night. Awesome article Bryn! In terms of this "futurology" type stuff, Kurzweil is obviously the most overcited, but a somewhat pretentious but nonetheless thought provoking article you might enjoy is Peter Thiel's "Optimistic Thought Experiment" which is still free online at Hoover's site if I recall.
Point 1) Author needs a different picture. Current one is too bland and happy to be believed as the originator of deep thoughts.
Point 2)Branding will never go away, it'll just get better. Many successful business sell an image or lifestyle along with their product; reference Abercrombie's clothing, Biotest's health supplements, or anything Oprah. Good user generated content will adopt these techniques and refine them to deal with the more competitive marketplace.
Point 3) Authors will only become obselete when they stop writing their name on their work. No one's going to google-search the specific chapter Ishmael sails off on Queequeg's coffin. The literary scene didn't sell: it was the gestalt story that made Moby Dick a classic. Similarly, while information can be commoditized (google news), art can't. It can, however, be pirated. But that's another issue.
Point 4) If Skynett goes online and your dystopian prophecy comes to pass, I'm gonna dance for joy when 2001: A Space Odyssey is divorced from Kubrick's name and people see it for the fat sack of fail it is.
Nice piece; alot to digest and think about.
Cathedral-builders, for example, were true artisans and mostly anonymous. Similar to today's open-source contributors.
Although the sheer volume of content might blur the accomplishments of the individual auteur, there will also be those asking, "who is this?" and always those eager to respond with the answer. Well written arguments, though.
An interesting thought but I agree with the last comment. Humans are far too egocentric to drop the byline. Also, think about your reaction to something interesting that you read: "Who wrote this? I want to know more about this person." We're social creatures, so when we are fascinated by an idea, we are as fascinated by the person/perspective/context of the author as by the idea itself... or maybe I'm projecting...